Land System Change
Boundary Breached
The transformation of natural landscapes, such as through deforestation and urbanization, diminishes ecological functions like carbon sequestration, moisture recycling, and habitats for wildlife, all crucial for Earth system health. Globally, the remaining forest areas in all three biomes (tropical, boreal, and temperate) have fallen below the safe levels.
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Importance
Deforestation is where we can see the biggest impact of land-system change. We lose around five million hectares of forest every year due to deforestation, primarily for industrial agriculture. Around 80% of all animals and plants that live on land live in our forests, meaning that deforestation is also a huge threat to biodiversity. These ecosystems act as enormous carbon sinks and play a vital role in our freshwater supplies.
Impacts
The transgression of the Land-System Change boundary has myriad consequences for the Earth system, and is closely connected to other boundaries such as:
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Change in Biosphere Integrity, (i.e., via habitat loss)
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Freshwater Change, (i.e., via changes to water evaporated by plants)
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Climate Change, (i.e., via the release of stored carbon and others)
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Regionally, many negative consequences are felt by local populations, including degraded local ecosystems, changing local climates, and even outbreaks of infectious diseases
Control Variables
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Percentage of potential forest cover
The value of relative forest cover ranges from 100% (the maximum potential forest cover) to 0% (no forest remaining). As a result of land-use and, increasingly, climate change, global and regional forests have been steadily declining over the last few decades across all major forest biomes. Most regions are already significantly below their regional boundaries, while some areas, such as temperate and tropical America, have just recently surpassed them.
Global Map of Recent Forest Changes
Spatially resolved trends between 1992 and 2022 (the time span of the data set) show a heterogeneous pattern of forest loss and gain across the globe. Continuous pristine forests in the tropics and boreal zones, in particular, have suffered losses of primary forest, while temperate forests, often reflecting managed forestry, have mostly suffered from climate change impacts.
Global Risk Map of the Land System Change Boundary Transgression: Forest Area
The large continuous forest biomes of the Earth have all transgressed the Planetary Boundary but show varying degrees of transgression.
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Key Drivers
In the transformation of land, especially forests, agriculture emerges as the primary driver. Between 2000 and 2018, nearly 90 percent of direct deforestation was due to the expansion of cropland (52.3%) and livestock grazing (37.5%).
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The dominant driver of forest loss varies by region: cropland expansion primarily impacts forest loss in Africa and Asia, while the expansion of livestock grazing predominates in South America and Oceania. Timber harvesting also significantly contributes to deforestation in vital tropical rainforests.
Connected Tipping Points
If the status of this Planetary Boundary continues to deteriorate, it will push many tipping elements toward tipping, including:
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Thaw in land permafrost
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Dieback Amazon rainforest and boreal forests
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Changes to the West African Monsoon (WAM)
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Degradation of savannas & grasslands
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Death of mangroves
Read more about other Boundaries
Planetary Boundary process inside Earth's safe operating space
Planetary Boundary process outside Earth's safe operating space
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